Ecommerce growth milestone planner
A revenue target is a claim about customers, CAC, and cash. Enter where you are and where you want to be, and see how many new customers the target needs, what they cost at that volume, and how much cash you carry before repeat orders catch up.
Working cash assumes ad spend is paid in the month it runs, first-order contribution lands in the same month, and no repeat revenue from the new cohort is counted yet. It excludes inventory you buy ahead of demand.
| Today | At target | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $100,000 | $200,000 |
| Returning-customer revenue | $30,000 | $42,773 |
| New-customer revenue | $70,000 | $157,227 |
| New customers | 824 | 1,850 |
| CAC | $45.00 | $55.67 |
| Ad spend | $37,059 | $102,982 |
| Blended MER | 2.70 | 1.94 |
Today's ad spend is implied from your inputs (new customers today × CAC today), so the MER comparison assumes every new customer today also came from paid media.
The math is the easy part.
The calculator gives you the number. We send what moves the inputs — from accounts we run every day.
How the planner works
Start with the revenue you already own. Returning customers produce a share of this month's revenue, and that share grows as your customer base does. The planner compounds it forward to the target month. Whatever the target needs beyond that has to come from first orders, so it is divided by first-order AOV to give the new customers you must buy each month.
Those customers cost more than today's. CAC rises by your chosen percentage every time new-customer volume doubles, so ad spend grows faster than the customer count. From spend and revenue come blended MER and contribution after ads.
returning at target = current revenue × returning share × (1 + monthly growth)^months
new-customer revenue = target revenue − returning at target
new customers needed = new-customer revenue ÷ first-order AOV
volume multiple = new customers needed ÷ new customers today
CAC at target = CAC today × multiple^log2(1 + CAC increase per doubling)
ad spend = new customers needed × CAC at target
blended MER = target revenue ÷ ad spend
contribution after ads = target revenue × margin − ad spend
working cash = ad spend − new customers × first-order AOV × margin (never below 0)A worked case: $100,000 a month today with 20% from returning customers and a $100 first-order AOV means 800 new customers a month. A $180,000 target with flat returning revenue needs $160,000 from first orders, or 1,600 customers. That is double today's volume, so a $50 CAC with a 20% step becomes $60, and spend is $96,000. At a 50% margin the target month earns $90,000 of contribution and spends $96,000 on ads, and first orders return $50 against each $60 CAC, so you fund $16,000 of working cash that month.
The assumptions, in plain language
Every new customer is bought with paid media, so spend equals new customers times CAC. If part of your new customer flow arrives organically or through referrals, real spend is lower and MER is higher than shown.
Returning revenue grows at one steady monthly rate from today's base. In reality the customers you acquire along the way are what drive that growth, so a higher acquisition plan usually earns a higher returning rate. Treat the rate as a judgment you can defend from your cohort data, not a lever to make the plan work.
CAC never falls below today's figure when volume drops. Cutting spend does usually make CAC cheaper, but a planner that assumes it will flatters the result.
Working cash covers one month of acquisition: spend goes out in the month it runs, first-order contribution comes back in the same month, and repeat orders from that cohort are not counted yet. Inventory bought ahead of demand is not included.
What to do with the result
If contribution after ads is positive at the target, the question is only whether you can fund the working cash while you get there. If it is negative, the target is a bet on repeat purchases. That can be a good bet, but it should be placed with a measured payback period, and the cash to survive it, not with a hope that the next quarter will fix the math.
The two inputs that move the answer most are the returning growth rate and the CAC step. Run the plan with both set pessimistically. If it still works, you have a target. If it only works on the optimistic case, you have a range, and the budget conversation should start there.
How many new customers do I need to hit my revenue target?
Subtract the revenue your returning customers will produce in the target month, then divide what is left by your first-order AOV. The returning part matters more than most plans admit: a store with 30% returning revenue growing 3% a month has a very different new-customer requirement a year out than one assuming that share stays flat.
Why does the planner raise CAC as volume grows?
Because the customers you acquire first are the cheapest ones available: people already searching for you, and audiences closest to your best buyers. Each doubling of volume reaches colder people who need more impressions and clicks to convert. The planner applies a fixed percentage increase per doubling. Replace the default with what your own account showed the last time you scaled spend.
What is blended MER and why is it lower at the target?
Blended MER is total revenue divided by total ad spend. It usually falls as you grow because new-customer revenue grows faster than returning revenue and each new customer costs more than the last. A falling MER is not automatically bad. It is bad when contribution after ads falls below what your fixed costs and profit need.
What does the working cash figure include?
The gap between one month of acquisition spend and the contribution those customers return on their first order. It assumes ad spend is paid in the month it runs and that no repeat revenue from that cohort arrives in the same month. It does not include inventory you buy ahead of demand, which for a growing store is often the larger cash need.
The target month loses money after ads. Is the plan wrong?
Not necessarily. Buying customers below first-order breakeven is a legitimate strategy when repeat purchases reliably pay the gap back, and a costly one when they do not. Check your cohort payback period before committing, and make sure you can fund the working cash for as many months as payback takes.
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