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Metrics & economics

LTV (customer lifetime value)

LTV is the total value a customer generates over their relationship with the business — honestly computed as contribution margin per cohort over time, not revenue.

— In practice

LTV computed on revenue is a fiction that flatters: only margin can justify an acquisition cost. The two disciplines that keep it honest are using realized cohort curves (what past cohorts actually produced at 6 and 12 months) rather than projections, and segmenting — LTV by first product purchased and by acquisition channel routinely varies two-to-three-fold.

For subscription businesses the standard approximation is monthly margin divided by monthly churn rate, which assumes constant churn and therefore overstates LTV when cancellations concentrate in early months.

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